On One Hand

November 7, 2006

2006 Midterm Projections

Filed under: Uncategorized — ononehand @ 3:05 am

It’s offically election day, and almost everyone is predicting that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives. The U.S. Senate is much harder to call – Democrats have to win all three of the states where they’re on the fence: Montana, Missouri, and Virginia, and meanwhile can’t let any Republican candidates sneak up on them in Rhode Island or Maryland. Democrats essentially need to win every single state in which they are close. An unlikely win in Tennesee, however, would give the Democrats breathing room in all other areas.

The New York Times Election Guide shows Democrats with the advantage in all close states except Virginia, where George Allen has a slight lead in the most recent poll. Meanwhile, Electoral-Vote.com at the last minute projected that Democrats would overtake the House by one seat, giving Webb a one-point advantage in Virginia. It is of note that Electoral-Vote.com is obviously pro-Democrat, and mistakenly projected Kerry winning in 2004. Meanwhile, ElectionProjection.com, an unabashedly Conservative site, is currently giving Democrats control of the senate.

The same Conservative website shows a sweeping victory for Democratic Governors, with Democrats holding on to all the governorships they currently have and picking up Colorado, Minnesota, Arkansas, Ohio, Maryland, New York and Massachusetts. This puts two powerful liberal states back under liberal control and throws in a few moderate states with them.

I think the most likely 2006 Midterm Election outcome to expect is a tie between Democrats and Republicans for seats in the Senate – which keeps it under tenuous Republican control. Meanwhile Democrats will end up with about 225 seats in the House. Various Democrats and Republicans will immediately begin announcing candidacies for presidency for the 2008 elections, and Bush will be more of a lame duck than any president ever was. Regardless of who wins the 2008 presidential election, Democrats will pick up more seats in both the house and the senate and have majorities in both places in 2009.



  1. Re: 2006 Midterm Projections

    I don’t know if you’re in the 4th District or not, Matt, but if you are, and if you haven’t already, please get your ass to the polls for Paccione. Musgrave *must* *must* *must* go down.

    An item of interest for the 2008 election is that of the 33 Senators up for re-election, a whopping 21 of them are Rethuglican. I smell at least four reasonable pickup (seats that go from R to D) opportunities in that cycle, including your Senator Wayne Allard — if both CO and national Dems are able to keep this year’s momentum. Another Rethug who I think is gone in ’08 is Norm Coleman (MN). The only places I can see possible Rethug pickups occurring are those where Dems will probably be retiring, possibly including my Senator Carl Levin (MI), so those are just a matter of holding on to our open seats.

    We could possibly be looking at a 54 D-46 R Senate when they convene on 1/3/09. (This of course counts independent Bernie Sanders (VT), who is basically a lock to win today, as a Dem; he not only votes with them, but is more liberal than 99.9% of them to boot.)

    Comment by larrysphatpage — November 7, 2006 @ 11:16 am | Reply

    • Re: 2006 Midterm Projections

      I’m not in the fourth district. In liberal Boulder, Deomocrat Mark Udall is basically a given.

      As much as Democrats hate Marilyn Musgrave, I have to admit that she is probably going to win. She’s running in a very Republican, very socially conservative area and her campaign just came out with a flurry of damning, if inaccurate, ads against opponent Angie Pacconie. If you want to know the cultural environment of Eastern Colorado that Musgrave is representing, think of a cross between Wyoming and Kansas.

      Look at the 7th district race between Ed Perlmutter and Rick O’Donnell for the Democrats to pick up a seat in Colorado – the incumbent, Bob Beauprez, is running for governor and won the house race by a hair last election; now that Democrats have the nationwide advantage the New York Times is projecting a Democrat win in that district.

      Comment by ononehand — November 7, 2006 @ 5:27 pm | Reply

      • Re: 2006 Midterm Projections

        I suppose it might have helped me to reference http://nationalatlas.com/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd109_co2.pdf first. 😛

        Is Fort Collins that conservative? I can see how Musgrave would kick ass in the rural parts of the 4th, but I would think a Dem would have a shot with people in the I-25 corridor part of that district (as the map shows, from Longmont on up to the WY line).

        Comment by larrysphatpage — November 8, 2006 @ 2:45 am

      • Re: 2006 Midterm Projections

        Fort Collins is not “that” Conservative in itself, but it’s only about 15-20% of the population in the district. FoCo is probably about 55-45 Democrat-Republican, so considering that the city such a small part of the district, it doesn’t make that much of a difference. Add in other towns like Loveland and Greeley – which are more conservative than FoCo, probably 50-50, and you still don’t have a win for the dems.

        And in the end the election was close, but not close enough. The fourth district covers everything Northeast of the Denver area clear up to the armpit of Nebraska, then swings down to the Southwest border of Oklahoma, which has THE most conservative counties in the state just a few miles away from the panhandle of Texas.

        Comment by ononehand — November 9, 2006 @ 10:36 pm

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