On One Hand

March 5, 2008

“Hillary’s New Math Problem”

Filed under: Uncategorized — ononehand @ 8:03 pm

Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter explains why Hillary can’t win the nomination even with breathtaking wins in all the states she’s expected to lose in.

She could win with more-than-breathtaking wins, but if they are run-of-the-mill breathtaking (with something that seems like a 95% liklihood), then she’s out.

I’m guessing she’s just doing in it for the veep spot now, though Alter disagrees. Still, it looks like we’re just going to have to wait it out, and watch the party take all the trouble from Clinton before the general election begins. There’s no use in rooting for it to be over soon. There may be a bright side – maybe Clinton’s illusion of potentiality will help her serve as a lightning rod for Republican criticism that would otherwise be directed at Obama. It might also give him some time to prepare more fine-tuned responses to the attacks he will get.



  1. Yup! Check this out: http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/162042/3056/80/468751

    Comment by randomcha — March 6, 2008 @ 3:01 pm | Reply

    • This is all true as for delegates, but the popular vote is also important. If Clinton is ahead in the popular vote but behind in pledged delegates, she can make a convincing plea to automatic delegates that they should support her to make it fair to what the voters wanted.

      Obama’s got the delegate math sewn up, but he needs to score high in the popular vote to win the nomination. If I were him, I would campaign hard in Mississippi and even Wyoming to ensure that as many people in these Obama-friendly states turn out as possible.

      Comment by ononehand — March 6, 2008 @ 7:25 pm | Reply

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